Moody's sounds alarm over U.S. debt limit and deficits (Reuters)

NEW YORK/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Ratings agency Moody's warned on Thursday it would consider cutting the United States' coveted top-notch credit rating if the White House and Congress do not make progress by mid-July in talks to raise the debt limit.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, seeking to convince Congress to increase his borrowing authority and prevent a government default, went to Capitol Hill to press his case in a 45-minute meeting with first-term lawmakers.

"I am confident that two things are going to happen this summer," Geithner told reporters after the meeting. "One is that we are going to avoid a default crisis and we are going to reach agreement on a long-term fiscal plan."

The meeting occurred just hours after Moody's Investors warned that slow-moving deficit talks led by Vice President Joe Biden, hindered by entrenched positions on both sides, had increased the odds of a short-lived default by Washington.

Moody's warning increases pressure on President Barack Obama and House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in the U.S. Congress, to strike a deal soon or risk upsetting global financial markets.

Geithner has predicted a financial catastrophe if Congress fails to increase the current $14.3 trillion borrowing cap by August 2, when his department will exhaust the extraordinary cash management measures it has been using since reaching the debt limit on May 16.

Geithner said he had a "good meeting" with the first-term lawmakers, but some of the skeptical Republicans, who oppose increasing the debt limit without implementing deep spending cuts, were less pleased.

"It is frustrating when the secretary talks in circles and that is very unfortunate," said Representative Stephen Lee Fincher. "We are all big boys and girls. We need a framework put forward and we are not seeing that out of this administration, only seeing talk, talk and talk."

Representative Kristi Noem, a favorite of the fiscally conservative Tea Party movement, said the freshmen Republicans made it clear to Geithner that they would not "give this administration a blank check to spend even more."

"Secretary Geithner doesn't get it," said Noem, one of the "mama grizzlies" touted by ex-Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

But a Treasury official characterized the talks with lawmakers as friendly and constructive.

POLITICAL GRANDSTANDING

Saying the risk of "continuing stalemate" between the two sides had grown, Moody's urged progress on deficit reduction soon before politics takes over in the run-up to the November 2012 presidential election.

"We think this is an opportunity," Steven Hess, sovereign credit analyst for Moody's, told Reuters. "If this opportunity goes by without them realizing a serious long-term debt/deficit reduction program, then we think that until the presidential election, the chances of such an agreement are really much reduced."

Mary Miller, a top Treasury official, said the Moody's statement underscored the need for Congress to move quickly to make sure the United States could meet all its debt obligations while working to reach a long-term fiscal deal.

A U.S. default would roil global financial markets, but few investors are rattled just yet. Wall Street, in large part, expects the debt and deficit negotiations to go down to the wire, as did talks over tax cuts and the 2011 budget.

"We've been through this political grandstanding before," said Jim Kochan, chief fixed-income strategist at Wells Fargo Advantage Funds.

"We always go right down to the day on debt ceiling targets being raised. No congressman and no president wants to be responsible for Social Security payments not going out. This is a minimal risk. We've seen this so many times."

Obama has tasked Biden to lead negotiations with Republican and Democratic lawmakers to find a deficit-reduction deal that would be palatable to Congress and pave the way for the debt limit to be raised. Their talks are due to resume on June 9.

But Republicans refuse to consider tax increases as part of a deal, while Democrats are opposed to Republican proposals to scale back the popular government-run Medicare healthcare program for future retirees.

Republicans seized on the announcement by Moody's, which comes two months after Standard & Poor's revised down its credit outlook on the U.S. rating, as proof of the need to make some sharp spending cuts.

"This report makes clear that if we let this opportunity pass without real deficit reduction, America's financial standing will be at risk," said Boehner. "A credible agreement means the spending cuts must exceed the debt limit increase.

Senator Charles Schumer, a top Democrat, said a compromise that prevents a "catastrophic default on our obligations and significantly reduces the debt is within reach."

(Additional reporting by Rachelle Younglai, Alister Bull and Thomas Ferraro; Writing by Deborah Charles; Editing by Ross Colvin, David Lawder and Eric Walsh)

Skepticism grows on Geithner's debt limit deadline (Reuters)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is facing growing criticism for his changing predictions on when the country might face a debt default, shifts that have led some Republicans to discount his dire warnings that the debt limit must be raised soon.

Since January, Geithner has changed his forecast of when the U.S. would hit its borrowing cap, and the final deadline for raising the debt limit, at least four times -- fueling a belief among rank-and-file Republicans that his latest August 2 deadline is artificial and can be ignored.

Some Democrats are increasingly worried that the changing calendar has been counter-productive, complicating efforts to get the $14.3 trillion borrowing cap raised because many conservative Republicans do not believe the country will start to default for many months.

"You can only cry wolf so many times," a former economic official in the Bill Clinton White House told Reuters. "If you are jumping from May to July to August, you can see people thinking that maybe you can jump from August to October.

"If people believe you can stretch this to October -- and the truth is, we really can't -- we're in big trouble."

Geithner first began warning in January of "catastrophic" consequences if the debt limit is not raised by Congress, saying then that the borrowing cap could be hit as early as March 31.

That prediction soon changed to April 5, but it was not until Monday -- May 16 -- that the ceiling was officially reached as the latest government bond sales were settled.

In early April, Geithner also said the drop-dead date for a debt limit rise, when the U.S. would begin to default on its obligations, was July 8. This month he changed that to August 2.

The Treasury says it can use "extraordinary measures" such as dipping into government pension funds to fend off default until August.

REPUBLICAN SKEPTICISM

Many conservative Republicans in the House of Representatives, especially those affiliated with the small-government Tea Party movement, say that Geithner and the White House are trying to panic them into raising the debt limit.

They also contend that the Treasury has other options to continue meeting the country's obligations, such as selling assets including gold reserves and government land.

"There is no certain day," said congressman James Lankford, a member of the fiscally conservative Republican Study Committee. "It's a moving target. Even if August 2 is passed, Treasury has the tools in its back pocket to keep us from defaulting."

Lankford added: "Treasury has done a good job of trying to increase the panic, rather than giving us solutions."

Dennis Ross, a House Republican and a member of the Tea Party caucus, told Reuters: "I don't think Treasury has been up front with us. I am not convinced the sky will fall in on August 3."

Ross added: "I'm not an economist, but I have maintained a household. The federal government owns 70 per cent of Utah, for example. There are federal buildings. If you need cash, let's start liquidating."

Karl Rove, the former chief political adviser to President George W. Bush, told Reuters: "Geithner's date predictions have been too precise, too often, and accompanied by too many dire predictions."

Treasury officials stand by the August 2 deadline, and point out that predicting default dates is complicated because of the shifting nature of revenues and expenditures. A Treasury spokesman had no further comment on Wednesday.

Geithner has sent several letters to Congress explaining why the U.S. Treasury's forecasts have changed. He shifted the latest deadline to August 2 because of higher-than-expected tax revenues, he said.

Most economists and financial analysts agree with Geithner's warning of a financial crisis if the debt limit is not raised. If that occurs, the fear is that investors, worried about the creditworthiness of the United States, will stop buying U.S. Treasury bonds, which will drive up interest rates and plunge the economy back into recession.

(Editing by Caren Bohan and David Lawder)